Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
Current price
11¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11%
$58.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes the strait being effectively closed by tying resolution to an exact numerical threshold: a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or below 10. Resolution relies on a single, specific URL and dataset from IMF PortWatch. Clear procedures are set for early resolution upon hitting the threshold, handling data revisions, and managing any reporting delays with a 14-day cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether ship transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drop significantly by November 30, defined specifically as the 7-day moving average of arrivals reaching 10 or fewer according to IMF PortWatch data.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ('Arrivals of Ships') for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and November 30. The market resolves to No if data is published through the listed date and no such qualifying value has appeared. If no data is published for the target date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, resolution relies on the data available up to that cutoff. Revisions made before data is published for the target date are considered, but cannot disqualify an earlier qualifying data point; later revisions are ignored. IMF PortWatch decides the outcome based on its 'Arrivals of Ships' dataset for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Key dates
- Target end date: — The final date evaluated for the 7-day moving average threshold.
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
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