Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
Current price
6.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$886.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution requires verifying both that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another entity has established control. While the rules detail specific exclusions—such as temporary raids, naval blockades, or unverified claims—evaluating whether control has been fully established rather than merely contested involves subjective interpretation. The rules explicitly resolve to No if control remains contested or unclear at the deadline. Additionally, resolution depends on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island to another authority by the end of 2026. Resolution requires actual control to be firmly established, explicitly excluding temporary military actions, mere announcements, or contested control.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardments, sabotage, offshore naval presence, disruptions, or claims without actual control do not qualify. Negotiated transfers or surrenders qualify only once actual control is established on the island. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met, or if control remains contested, unclear, disputed, or insufficiently established by the deadline. Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, alongside a consensus of credible reporting, decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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