Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?
Current price
7.6¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.6%
$25.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an objective numeric threshold of a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, tracked directly via an official IMF Portwatch dashboard URL. The criteria for ship classifications, calendar attribution, and data revisions are explicitly laid out. Resolution occurs immediately once a qualifying data point is published or once the full month's data is completed without meeting the threshold.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether IMF Portwatch publishes data showing that Strait of Hormuz daily transit traffic reaches a 7-day moving average of at least 60 calls with the first qualifying date falling in December.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60, and the first date reaching this threshold falls in December. Qualifying ship types are container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF Portwatch. The market resolves to No if data has been published through the final date of the specified month without any qualifying value, or if another qualifying month occurs first. If no qualifying data point is published by the time data for December 31, 2026 is released, it resolves to No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026. Resolution is determined by IMF Portwatch transit calls data.
Key dates
- Final tracking date: — Market checks if a qualifying data point is published by the end of 2026 data.
- Data publication cutoff: — If no data for December 31, 2026 is published by 11:59 PM ET on this date, resolution uses data published up to that point.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
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