Macron out by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.85¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$74.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward criteria: it resolves affirmatively if Emmanuel Macron ceases to serve as the President of France at any point prior to the end of December 31, 2026, and settles immediately if he leaves office early. The rules prioritize official announcements from the French government, though they also permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France by the end of 2026. The market resolves immediately if he leaves office before the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, inclusive. The market resolves immediately upon his departure from office if it occurs before the deadline. Otherwise, the market resolves No. The primary resolution source is information from the government of France. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution Date: — Market resolves on this date if Emmanuel Macron is still President.
Resolution source
information from the government of France
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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