Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Current price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$3.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution hinges on China commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over inhabited territory administered by Taiwan. This specific intent threshold creates potential disagreement during non-amphibious military actions, such as a naval blockade, missile strikes, or airspace incursions that stop short of attempting territorial control. The rules also explicitly exclude uninhabited islands, which could surprise participants expecting any territorial violation to count. Additionally, because resolution can be triggered by multiple separate official bodies or by a broad consensus of credible reporting without a defined hierarchy, the resolver has significant latitude to evaluate conflicting reports.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether China will initiate a military offensive to gain control of any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027. Notably, territory under Republic of China administration includes inhabited islands, but uninhabited islands do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Inhabited islands administered by the Republic of China count toward this condition, while uninhabited islands are excluded. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive occurs by the deadline. The outcome is determined by official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for China to commence a qualifying military offensive (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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