Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

This event tracks whether transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will drop significantly by specific cutoff dates, measuring ship traffic via IMF PortWatch transit call statistics.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of multiple deadline-based markets. Because each market checks whether the condition is met for any date between creation and its specific listed date, an earlier market resolving Yes implies that subsequent later deadline markets will also resolve Yes. Therefore, multiple markets can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Markets resolve as soon as a qualifying average is published, or once data through the listed date is published without meeting the condition. If no data is published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET), resolution relies on data published up to that point. Revisions made before data is published for the listed date are considered but cannot disqualify an already qualified data point.

Key dates

• October 31 cutoff: End date for the October 31 market window (year not stated).
• December 31 cutoff: End date for the December 31 market window (year not stated).

Resolution source

IMF PortWatch

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC