Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 at 89% · first close Feb 1, 2027 · $458.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks when Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic will return to normal levels, measured by IMF Portwatch transit data reaching a 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily transit calls. Markets cover specific calendar months and an outcome for no return to normal in 2026.
How the outcomes relate
Markets represent mutually exclusive time windows and a fallback outcome. Only one market can resolve Yes, as the event resolves according to the first calendar month in which a qualifying data point occurs. If no qualifying data point appears through December 31, 2026, the 'No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026' market resolves Yes.
How it resolves
A monthly market resolves Yes as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 with a date falling in that calendar month. A market resolves No once data is published for its final date without meeting the threshold. Eligible ship categories are container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. If no qualifying level is reached through December 31, 2026, the event resolves to 'No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026'. If December 31, 2026 data is missing by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, resolution uses data published up to that cutoff.
Key dates
- Year-end observation date: — Final date of potential qualifying data for the 2026 period.
- Final data reporting cutoff: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for December 31, 2026 data to be published.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 | 89% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| December | 8% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| November | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| October | 1% | ±0 | Low | Med |