Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Current price
10.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$653.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to hold office before the deadline, but it also contains several clauses that broaden the resolution criteria beyond formal removal. A mere announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution to Yes even if the transition has not yet taken effect or is scheduled for a later date. Additionally, being detained, effectively removed, or permanently incapacitated qualifies for Yes, which relies on interpreting whether an event meets that standard. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the Russian government or Putin, but allows a consensus of credible reporting to serve as an alternative deciding source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin will leave office as President of Russia by June 30, 2027. Resolution is unusual because an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when the change officially takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period between market creation and June 30, 2027 (ET). It also resolves to Yes immediately if his resignation or removal is announced before the end date, regardless of the effective date. In addition, being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties within the timeframe qualifies for Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — The specified deadline (ET) by which Vladimir Putin must cease to be President for a Yes resolution.
Resolution source
Official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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