Iran leadership change by October 31?
Current price
1.7¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$675.4K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks broadly about an Iranian leadership change, but the rules strictly tie resolution to whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader or Supreme Leader. This creates severe interpretive ambiguity regarding his baseline status and what constitutes losing power if his official role is disputed or not formally held. Resolution relies on evaluating a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official register or specific named institution, leaving significant latitude to the decider. Additionally, an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive outcome even if the actual transfer of power is scheduled for a later date.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran by October 31. Notably, the market presumes Mojtaba Khamenei as the incumbent Supreme Leader and de facto leader.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). This occurs if he is removed from power, detained, loses his position, or is prevented from acting as de facto leader, or if an official announcement is made regarding his resignation or removal regardless of when the departure takes effect. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions occur within the timeframe. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- End date: October 31 (ET)
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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