EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
VA-02 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →
Elaine Luria (D) · 7 daysRange 87–91%
Markets
1,979 live Polymarket markets in 732 events- LowGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-03 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–5.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Roger Marshall (R) · 7 daysRange 63–64% - MedGotcha
Will Michigan Wolverines win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions0.15¢−0.3¢ since Oct 14Since Oct 14Range 0.15–0.45¢ - LowGotcha
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks4.35¢−1.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.15–5.45¢ - MedGotcha
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptionsWording2.8¢−1.9¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.8–4.85¢ - LowGotcha
Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks2.15¢+0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.7–2.95¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate61%±0No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate34%±0Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate3%±0Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate2%±0Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
WI-01 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Bryan Steil (R) · 7 daysRange 62–64% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NC-09 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Richard Hudson (R) · Since Oct 17Flat at 82% - LowGotcha
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver99¢+0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 98.15–99.1¢ - MedGotcha
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver1.85¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.5–2¢ - LowGotcha
US recession by end of 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks6.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–8.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver25.5¢±0¢ since Oct 15Since Oct 15Flat at 25.5¢ - MedGotcha
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording5.4¢+0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.2–6.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks59¢−2¢ 7d7 daysRange 52.5–61¢ - LowGotcha
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions3.55¢−0.8¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.1–5.3¢ - MedGotcha
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording3.75¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.6–5.25¢ - EVENT · 13 OUTCOMES
Bundesliga: 2027 Champion
+8 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Change in points, 24hView event → - LowGotcha
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks9.5¢+3¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–9.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Tom Cotton (R) · 7 daysRange 94–95% - MedGotcha
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording4.3¢−0.75¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.15–5.05¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK
Change in points, 24hView event →Aston Villa FC · Since Oct 16Range 78–79% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Real Betis Balompié vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
Real Betis Balompié62%▼ 2Draw (Real Betis Balompié vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam)20%—Feyenoord Rotterdam19%—Change in points, 24hView event →Real Betis Balompié · Since Oct 16Range 62–64% - LowGotcha
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks1.5¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.35–1.55¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
AR-02 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →French Hill (R) · 7 daysRange 82–85% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Club Brugge KV vs. Racing Club de Lens
Change in points, 24hView event →Club Brugge KV · Since Oct 16Range 46–48% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Jeff Van Drew (R) · Since Oct 17Range 84–85% - MedGotcha
Modi out by June 30, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions10.5¢−6¢ 7d7 daysRange 7.5–16.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks9.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysFlat at 9.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks4.2¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.1–4.75¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk
FC Internazionale Milano83%—Draw (FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk)12%—FK Shakhtar Donetsk7%—Change in points, 24hView event →FC Internazionale Milano · Since 00:56 UTCRange 82–83% - MedGotcha
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMExceptionsResolverWording2¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.25¢ - MedGotcha
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording3.4¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–3.85¢ - LowGotcha
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver14.35¢−0.3¢ 7d7 daysRange 13.55–15.15¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory
Change in points, 24hView event → - LowGotcha
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-02 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver4¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 4–5.5¢ - MedGotcha
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions6.5¢−2¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–8.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver2.1¢−0.2¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.7¢ - LowGotcha
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks97.4¢+0.45¢ 7d7 daysRange 96.95–98.1¢ - MedGotcha
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver6¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4–6¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Fed rate cut by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 2026 Meeting · 7 daysRange 2–3% - LowGotcha
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver1.05¢−0.3¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.85–1.6¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
F1 Constructors' Champion
Change in points, 24hView event →Mercedes · 7 daysFlat at 99% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
Change in points, 24hView event →2 · 7 daysFlat at 90% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Change in points, 24hView event →Spider-Man: Brand New Day · 7 daysFlat at 96%