Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
Current price
20.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20.5%
$151.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide comprehensive and precise legal criteria defining what constitutes an enacted statewide moratorium, including explicit thresholds (such as 100 MW capacity), clear exclusions for executive orders or tax-incentive suspensions, and precise definitions of enactment versus effective dates. While the rule mechanics include multiple specific caveats—such as counting referendums as enacted on election day rather than certification day, and ignoring subsequent judicial invalidations or repeals—these boundaries are clearly articulated. Official state government records serve as the primary source, with credible reporting as a secondary backup.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Louisiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Louisiana; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Louisiana enacts a statewide statutory or constitutional moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2028. Executive orders, agency orders, discretionary moratoriums, and local bans are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Louisiana enacts a statutory law or constitutional provision establishing a mandatory statewide moratorium on new data centers (or all new data centers with capacity over 100 MW) by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The measure must prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, interconnection, or operation by default. Executive orders, administrative rules, discretionary authorizations, tax incentive suspensions, and local bans do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying law is enacted by the deadline. Subsequent repeals or judicial invalidations do not affect resolution. Resolution is determined by official Louisiana state government information or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the state government of Louisiana, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.