Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Current price
2.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.2%
$397.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks whether Venezuela will become the 51st state, but the rules expand and alter this condition in several specific ways. First, an annexation involving only a portion of Venezuelan territory qualifies. Second, full admission is not strictly required within the window; the announcement of an official agreement is sufficient even if implementation is scheduled for the future. Third, the rules include an early negative resolution trigger: if any other territory without Venezuelan land becomes the 51st US state during the 2026 timeframe, the market immediately resolves negatively. Resolution relies primarily on US government announcements alongside a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether any part of Venezuela becomes the 51st US state during 2026. Resolution is notable for allowing an announced official agreement to trigger a positive resolution regardless of when it takes effect, and for resolving negatively early if any other territory becomes the 51st state.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announced official agreement suffices for a Yes resolution regardless of its effective date. The market resolves to No immediately if any territory containing no Venezuelan land becomes the 51st US state during the timeframe, or if the Yes criteria are not met by December 31, 2026. Resolution is decided using information from the United States government, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market timeframe begins: — Start of the window for formal annexation or statehood
- Market timeframe ends: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for criteria to be met
Resolution source
Information from the government of the United States, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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