Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
Current price
16.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$21.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly defines resolution criteria based on the 2026 midterm election outcome for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district. It outlines specific party affiliation rules for non-major party candidates based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus. While resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, it designates an official backstop in the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns with standard election result finalization across all House races.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the NJ-02 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the NJ-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The market decides based on a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.