Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?
Current price
25.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.5%
$17.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Colorado's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are handled via their stated caucus intent. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by official Federal Election Commission certified results if any reporting ambiguity arises. While relying on a consensus of reporting introduces some decider discretion before official certification, standard US congressional election outcomes are generally straightforward and unlikely to cause surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party will win Colorado's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the CO-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated with the major parties, has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with the Democrats when all House races are called. It resolves to No if a candidate from another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat instead. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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