Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Current price
62.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 62.5%
$532.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify how the winner is determined, explicitly defining party nominees and excluding independent candidates from party labels even if affiliated. The market relies on concrete, objective resolution sources: a consensus call across the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a clear fallback to the official state election certification if the media calls differ. Potential edge cases, such as candidate replacements prior to election day and run-off scenarios, are directly addressed with straightforward instructions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas, including any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if affiliated with that party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. A candidate represents a party if they are the official nominee, and replacement nominees are tracked if replaced before election day. Candidates running as independents do not count for party options regardless of affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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