Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Current price
99.05¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 99.05%
$670.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution condition is straightforward, requiring the US midterm elections to take place on November 3, 2026, which aligns with the federally designated election date. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting if needed. There is minor ambiguity regarding how localized disruptions or single-precinct emergency postponements might be evaluated, but the overall criteria present minimal risk of surprising participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the 2026 United States Midterm Elections take place on their scheduled date of November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. The market resolves to No if the elections do not occur on that date. Official information from the US government serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The date on which the 2026 US Midterm Elections must take place for the market to resolve Yes.
Resolution source
Official information from the US government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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