Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Current price
5.6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.6%
$14K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide unambiguous standards for identifying the winner of the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate election. Party representation is tied strictly to official nominee status, explicitly clarifying that independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of party affiliation or caucusing arrangements. The resolution pathway is clear and objective: it resolves as soon as three named major media decision desks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) unanimously project the same winner, with an explicit fallback to the state's official certified election results if a consensus call is not reached. Run-off scenarios and ballot nominee replacements are also explicitly addressed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas, including any run-offs. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats even if they have an affiliation with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if the Democratic nominee does not win. Candidates running as independents are excluded from the Democratic option regardless of party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the winner, resolution is decided by official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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