Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Current price
4.2¢
+2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.2%
$82.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the valuation formula and set an exact snapshot time at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, alongside an explicit long-term expiry date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is vaguely defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named price aggregator or exchange, leaving room for interpretation regarding which trading venue qualifies and how liquidity is measured. Additionally, confirming the exact total token supply on launch day can occasionally lead to minor discrepancies across different tracking platforms.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Abstract's governance token exceeds $400M exactly one calendar day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than $400M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $400M at that time, or if Abstract does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if the token is not launched by this time
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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