Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Current price
2.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$418.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify that an official reduction in the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will trigger resolution, relying on the Federal Reserve's official website as the primary source. However, holders should note the specific observation window: only rate cuts occurring between December 16, 2025, and the conclusion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting count toward a positive resolution. Any interest rate cuts taking place prior to December 16, 2025, will not qualify, which is a key restriction not apparent from the question title alone.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between December 16, 2025, and the conclusion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Emergency rate cuts qualify for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if no qualifying decrease occurs during this period. It also resolves to No if no December 2026 meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET and no qualifying rate cut has been announced. The primary deciding source is the official website of the Federal Reserve, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Qualifying period begins: — Rate cuts on or after this date count toward resolution.
- Scheduled FOMC meeting: — The December 2026 meeting is scheduled for December 8–9, 2026.
- Fallback cutoff date: — Market resolves to No if no December meeting occurs and no rate cut is announced by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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