Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Current price
1.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.35%
$18.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify that the World Health Organization must explicitly characterize the specified virus, syndrome, or related outbreak as a pandemic in an official communication before the end of 2026. The criteria explicitly exclude a Public Health Emergency of International Concern designation unless the term pandemic is specifically used, which removes a common source of confusion in global health markets. The primary resolution source is directly tied to official WHO statements, reports, briefings, or publications.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the World Health Organization officially designates a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a pandemic by the end of 2026. Notably, declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) does not suffice on its own without explicit use of the word pandemic.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official statement, report, press briefing, or publication by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) designation alone does not qualify unless the outbreak is also described as a pandemic. The market resolves to No if no qualifying explicit characterization occurs within the specified timeframe. Official WHO communications serve as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market closes and evaluates whether the WHO characterized a Hantavirus outbreak as a pandemic.
Resolution source
World Health Organization official communications and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.