Fed rate cut by...?

This event tracks whether the Federal Reserve will decrease the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across a timeline of scheduled FOMC meetings through late 2026. Each market evaluates if a rate cut happens by the conclusion of a specified meeting date.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline ladder of target dates representing specific FOMC meetings. Because each market asks whether a rate cut occurs by a specified meeting, multiple markets can resolve Yes; an earlier rate cut will trigger a Yes resolution for subsequent milestone markets as well.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point starting December 16, 2025, through the completion of the designated FOMC meeting (including emergency cuts). Otherwise, it resolves to No. Each market includes a specific fallback date by which it will resolve to No if the scheduled meeting does not take place and no qualifying rate cut has been announced. Resolution decisions are based primarily on the Federal Reserve's official website, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.

Key dates

• Observation start date: Dec 16, 2025 — Start of the evaluation window for rate decreases
• October 2026 FOMC meeting: Oct 28, 2026 — Currently scheduled end of the October 27-28 meeting
• October meeting fallback deadline: Nov 7, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET deadline if no October meeting takes place
• December 2026 FOMC meeting: Dec 9, 2026 — Currently scheduled end of the December 8-9 meeting

Resolution source

The official website of the Federal Reserve

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 15:33 UTC