Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?
Current price
81.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 81.5%
$15.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard terms for a US congressional election seat, matching the outcome of the 2026 NC-09 House race. Party affiliation is explicitly defined by ballot listing, with clear fallback rules for independent candidates based on caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While relying on media consensus introduces some decider discretion relative to an official certification, the clear fallback and straightforward criteria leave little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win North Carolina's 9th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are classified based on their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NC-09 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by their ballot listing or stated intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Democratic Party, or otherwise does not qualify as Republican. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the market.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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