Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
Current price
4.35¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.35%
$70.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes winning as a party nominee and explicitly clarify that independent runs do not count toward party options. The resolution criteria rely on an objective consensus across three designated major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear fallback to official state certification if the networks do not reach unanimous agreement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the Massachusetts gubernatorial race in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Republicans, regardless of party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, resolution applies to the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources do not all call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Year of the Massachusetts gubernatorial election
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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