Will the Republicans win the Illinois governor race in 2026?
Current price
2.8¢
+0.8¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.8%
$8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear resolution criteria based on the official winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race. It explicitly defines party representation, noting that candidates must be the official party nominee and that independent runs do not count toward major party options. Resolution is triggered when three specified news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all call the race for the same candidate, with a definite fallback to official state certification if unanimous calls do not occur. These rules leave minimal room for ambiguity or source discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from the Republican and Democratic party options regardless of any party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial race. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or running as an independent wins the race. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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