Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Current price
94.65¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.65%
$25.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows standard election mechanics with clear criteria. Resolution triggers as soon as three major news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification acting as a fallback if the outlets disagree. The rules clearly define party representation, explicitly excluding independents from the Republican option even if they align with the party, and provide clear procedures for candidate replacements or potential run-offs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate race, including run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not represent the Democratic or Republican options regardless of party affiliation. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, the race resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The market covers the 2026 midterm election inclusive of run-offs. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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