Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title suggests that any intraday high touching $6,000 would trigger resolution, but the detailed rules explicitly state that intraday trades, highs, or bids do not qualify. Instead, resolution strictly requires the official daily CME settlement price for the designated active front-month contract to reach or exceed $6,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. The source is an objective, named financial exchange with precise definitions of contract rollover, and initial publication takes precedence over subsequent price corrections.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the CME settlement price for front-month Gold (GC) futures reaches or exceeds $6,000 by the end of December 2026. Unusually, only official daily settlement prices count, while intraday highs and subsequent corrections are ignored.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reaches or exceeds $6,000 on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoints, indicative prices, and subsequent corrections do not count. The market resolves to No if the settlement price never reaches this threshold during the period. CME Group official settlement data determines the outcome. If the settlement price is not published within 72 hours of the final trading day, resolution uses settlement prices published across all CME channels up to that point.
Key dates
- End of period: — Final trading day of December 2026
Resolution source
CME Group website
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