VA-02 House Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Elaine Luria (D) at 90% (+3 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $57.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Virginia's 2nd congressional district (VA-02). Its markets measure which political party or candidate will win the congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
Each market represents a specific political party competing for the single VA-02 House seat. Because only one candidate can win the seat, at most one market can resolve Yes, while the other will resolve No.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with that market's designated party wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections; otherwise, it resolves to No. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official fallback to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Luria (D) | 90% | ▲ 3 | Low | Med | |
| Jen Kiggans (R) | 10% | ▼ 3 | Low | Med |