Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
Current price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$26.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish who qualifies as a party representative, explicitly clarifying that independent candidates are excluded from party options even if they have party affiliations. Resolution relies on specific, named media outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) agreeing on the projected winner, with official election certification serving as a definitive fallback if a unanimous call is not reached. There are no unusual clauses or ambiguous criteria that would introduce resolution risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as representing the party regardless of any affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins, including independent candidates regardless of party affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Year of the Oklahoma gubernatorial election
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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