Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Current price
4.35¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.35%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise, objective criteria for resolution. The outcome is determined strictly by Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle high prices across a clearly defined evaluation window ending on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A specific URL and chart setup are designated as the sole resolution source, leaving no discretion to the decider and little room for ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high on Binance BTC/USDT by December 31, 2026. Unusually, it relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices on Binance rather than broader aggregate market data, starting from December 16, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between December 16, 2025 at 10:30 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET reaches a final High price higher than any previous Binance 1-minute candle High price on any prior date. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle establishes a new high during this period. Resolution is determined strictly by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart, excluding other exchanges or spot markets.
Key dates
- Start of monitoring window: — Candles begin being monitored for a new high.
- End of monitoring window: — Final cutoff time for a new high to occur.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.