Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Current price
34.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.35%
$35.1K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
No substantive resolution rules are provided directly in the text, as the description only links to an external document. Because the actual resolution criteria and sources cannot be reviewed from the provided text, the market cannot be assessed.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures a compound condition regarding whether there is no Hormuz agreement or oil reaches at least $80, combined with Republicans winning the Senate.
How it resolves
The market rules are hosted at an external document link and are not detailed directly in the text. The market resolves based on the specified conditions regarding the Hormuz agreement, oil price thresholds, and Republican control of the Senate as defined by the governing document.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.