Arkansas Senate Election Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Tom Cotton (R) at 95% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $39.5K total volume
About this event
This event covers the outcome of the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate election, tracking which political party or candidate will win the seat.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a political party whose nominee might win the race. Because only one candidate can win the Senate seat, at most one market can resolve Yes. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by party options, and additional candidates may be added later.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if its specified party's nominee wins the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate race, inclusive of any run-offs; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not all agree, resolution relies on the official certification.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Year: The election year for the Arkansas U.S. Senate race. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not all call the race for the same candidate)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton (R) | 95% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Hallie Shoffner (D) | 6% | ±0 | Low | High |