Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. Its markets measure specific percentage margin brackets for a party's victory, calculated as the absolute difference between the vote shares of the first-place and second-place candidates.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured into distinct, mutually exclusive margin-of-victory brackets and party victory outcomes. Based on the rules defining single margin calculations and tiebreaker procedures, at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if the official election results show that the specified party's candidate wins by a margin within the defined bracket. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote percentages between the top two candidates relative to all valid votes. If a value falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'. If a recount occurs before official certification, resolution waits until the recount is completed.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC