Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?
Current price
1.1¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.1%
$32.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 OH-13 congressional race. The criteria for assigning party affiliation are clearly detailed, including explicit fallback logic for independent candidates based on their stated caucus intent. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces some judgment regarding when an election is conclusively called, but the presence of an official government fallback via the Federal Election Commission provides a definitive tiebreaker if reporting is ambiguous or contested.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Ohio's 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-13 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback official source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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