Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
Current price
10.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$49.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the counting mechanism, establishing that only unique individuals officially appointed by the British monarch between market creation and December 31, 2027, will qualify. Keir Starmer is explicitly confirmed as counting as the first Prime Minister, and repeated non-consecutive appointments of the same person count only once. Official information from the UK government serves as the primary source of truth, with credible reporting as a secondary backup. The exclusion of interim or caretaker Prime Ministers is stated, though in practice UK Prime Ministers remain fully commissioned by the monarch until a successor kisses hands.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures how many unique individuals officially serve as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom between market creation and December 31, 2027. It specifically tracks unique individuals rather than non-consecutive terms, with Keir Starmer explicitly counted as one.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the total count of unique individuals officially holding the office of UK Prime Minister between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. To be counted, an individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch and serve during the timeframe. Reappointed individuals are counted only once. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. Keir Starmer counts as one Prime Minister. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of the United Kingdom or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market resolution deadline: — Evaluates unique UK Prime Ministers serving up to 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of the United Kingdom, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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