Will the Democratic Party win the IN-03 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$38.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard US midterm election outcomes for Indiana's 3rd congressional district in 2026. Clear definitions govern party affiliation, including ballot listings and explicit caucus intent fallbacks for independents. Initial determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive official backstop from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While evaluating consensus reporting involves minor judgment, congressional race winners and their party affiliations are objectively tracked and certified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Indiana's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the IN-03 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by their ballot listing, or for candidates without a listed Democrat or Republican affiliation, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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