Modi out by June 30, 2027?
Current price
11¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11%
$45.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes if the subject leaves office, but it includes an early resolution trigger based on an announced resignation or removal regardless of its effective date. Participants should note the subjective clause covering situations where the individual is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling their duties, which introduces interpretive room without strict legal definitions. Resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible reporting, giving the resolver latitude in evaluating news reports if official announcements are disputed or delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Narendra Modi leaves or is removed from the office of Prime Minister of India by June 30, 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if it takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period between market creation and June 30, 2027 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Yes also applies if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties during the timeframe. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Cutoff date: — End of the specified timeframe for Modi ceasing to be Prime Minister (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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