Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
Current price
83.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 83.5%
$16.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on standard terms for a congressional election outcome, tracking whether the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party. The rules specify how independent or third-party candidates are categorized by looking at ballot listing or caucus intent when all House races are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous, giving deciders some initial latitude but providing a definitive official backstop.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot are assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the NJ-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is considered a member of the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election specified in the rules.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.