Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?
Current price
82.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 82.5%
$16.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the winning party of Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish clear fallback procedures for independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive tiebreaker if ambiguity arises. While standard election certification delays apply, the criteria and resolution sources are well-defined and standard for federal congressional race markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AR-02 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by their ballot-listed party or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole decider if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.