Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.65¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.65%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution conditions are well defined: the market requires the US House of Representatives to pass at least one article of impeachment by a simple majority vote between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules explicitly clarify that Senate trial, conviction, or removal is not required for a affirmative outcome. While the rules note that a consensus of credible reporting may be used alongside official US federal government records, an official House vote is an objective public record with negligible ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will be impeached by the US House of Representatives between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives votes by simple majority to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump within the specified timeframe. A trial, conviction by the US Senate, or removal from office is not required for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if this does not occur by the deadline. Information from the US federal government serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting used as well.
Key dates
- Market window start: — Start of the period during which an impeachment vote qualifies.
- Market window end: — Deadline for the House impeachment vote.
Resolution source
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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