Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Current price
95.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.5%
$695.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market provides precise resolution criteria based on a specific URL and column on Box Office Mojo for 2026 domestic calendar gross once December 31 data is posted. A specific tiebreaker rule is defined, and a fixed fallback deadline of January 7, 2027, is established if Box Office Mojo data is unavailable. Note that calendar gross counts only earnings within 2026 rather than full lifetime theatrical runs, but this constraint is explicitly documented.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will achieve the highest domestic calendar gross of any film in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the highest domestic gross for 2026 listed in the Gross column of the Box Office Mojo 2026 calendar grosses chart once December 31 data is available. Only earnings accumulated during the 2026 calendar year count toward the total, and dates outside 2026 are excluded. The market resolves to No if another movie earns the highest 2026 calendar gross. If an exact tie occurs, the movie that comes first alphabetically wins. If final data is not available on Box Office Mojo by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be selected to resolve the market.
Key dates
- End of 2026 tracking period: — Grosses earned after this date do not count toward the 2026 calendar total.
- Data availability deadline: — If Box Office Mojo data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on this date, another credible source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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