Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?
Current price
17.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$26K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market follows the standard outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single predefined authority, which requires discretion in judging consensus, but an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results is specified if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation mechanics are clearly delineated, including how independent or third-party candidates who caucus with a major party are treated. There are few timing or wording hazards beyond standard election call delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House seat for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the AR-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Affiliation is based on ballot listing or, for candidates without a listed major party affiliation, their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole fallback if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.