US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
Current price
5.4¢
−0.8¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.4%
$64.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution hinges on interpreting the substance of official diplomatic statements against specific technical criteria, such as safety conditions, compute caps, or restrictions on recursive self-improvement. While the rules explicitly outline four acceptable forms of commitments and exclude mere statements of intent or ongoing negotiations, diplomatic language is often ambiguous and may require judgement to determine if a joint commitment truly meets the definition of an AI pacing agreement. The resolution source relies primarily on official government announcements but allows a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback, introducing some decider discretion in evaluating international reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models. Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States and China will announce an agreement to pace frontier AI development by the end of 2026. Resolution requires an announced agreement on specific AI restrictions regardless of whether it is ever signed, ratified, binding, or implemented.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US and China announce an AI pacing agreement by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements require both governments to commit to safety conditioning, compute caps, limits on recursive self-improvement, or other pauses/slowdowns on AI model training or release. Acceptance must be announced via a joint statement or confirming separate official statements by authorized representatives, and multilateral deals qualify if both nations are parties. The agreement does not need to be binding, signed, ratified, or implemented. Statements referencing ongoing negotiations, prospective deals, or unconfirmed claims do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Official information from the US and Chinese governments serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Agreement must be announced by this date and time
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States and China, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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