Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Current price
7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7%
$2.9M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market includes a critical clause that diverges from what a reader might expect: only Ukraine's signature is required, meaning Russia does not need to sign or ratify the document for the market to resolve positively. A broad range of instruments can qualify, including roadmap frameworks or mediated texts outlining a peace process, provided they are not strictly localized or issue-specific. Deciding whether an interim document or diplomatic roadmap meets the standard of committing both sides to a defined process relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official treaty depository, granting the resolver considerable latitude. The final deadline is clearly defined as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine signs a written peace agreement, ceasefire, or framework with Russia before 2027. Notably, only Ukraine's signature is required; Russia is not required to sign or ratify the document for the market to resolve positively.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an authorized Ukrainian representative provides a wet-ink or official electronic signature on a written instrument with Russia that ends hostilities, establishes a ceasefire, or commits both parties to a defined process toward ending the war by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only Ukraine's signature is required; Russia's signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific agreements, such as humanitarian pauses, prisoner exchanges, trade arrangements, or sector-limited ceasefires, do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such signed agreement occurs by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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