Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Current price
60.85¢
+0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 60.85%
$42.9K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market does not contain self-contained substantive rules and instead points exclusively to an external PDF link for resolution details. Without the specific resolution criteria provided in text, it is not possible to assess the market mechanics.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures a compound condition involving whether there is no Hormuz agreement or oil reaches at least $80, combined with Democrats winning the Senate.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the rules specified in the external document provided in the market description. Specific resolution criteria for Yes and No outcomes, key thresholds, and the determining authority are governed by the linked reference.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.