Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
Current price
2.65¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.65%
$189.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has precise mechanics and relies on an authoritative official source in CME Group, with clear definitions of the active contract month and rollover timing. However, the question title includes the indicator '(HIGH)', which could lead observers to assume that any intraday price touch would suffice. In contrast, the detailed rules explicitly state that intraday highs, lows, and trades do not count, requiring the official daily settlement price itself to reach or exceed $7,000. Additionally, resolution locks in based on the first published settlement figure for each day, ignoring any subsequent corrections or updates from the exchange.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the CME official settlement price for the front-month Gold (GC) futures contract reaches or exceeds $7,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies strictly on official daily settlement prices rather than intraday high prices.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures reaches or exceeds $7,000 on any trading day on or before the final trading day of December 2026. Intraday highs, lows, trades, bids, offers, or midpoint values do not count. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met by that deadline. The Active Month is the nearest non-spot delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December). Resolution is decided using the daily settlement price published on the CME Group website as first published, ignoring later corrections. If settlement prices are not published on the website within 72 hours of the final trading day, resolution uses settlement prices published across all CME channels up to that point.
Key dates
- Final trading day cutoff: — The final trading day of December 2026 by which the settlement price must reach or exceed $7,000.
Resolution source
CME Group website
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