Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.65¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$545.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title asks whether Donald Trump will resign, but the rules explicitly state that an announcement alone satisfies a positive resolution, regardless of whether he ever actually leaves office. Additionally, if he is removed from office through other means or becomes unable to resign, the market will resolve early to No. Resolution relies primarily on official federal government communications alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump announces his resignation from the presidency of the United States by December 31, 2026. Unusually, resolution depends solely on an announcement that he has resigned or will resign; whether he actually leaves office has no bearing on the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if President Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement alone qualifies for Yes, regardless of whether he actually follows through with resigning. The market resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by the deadline. The market also resolves to No immediately if it becomes impossible for Trump to resign or announce a resignation, such as due to removal from office by other means. Resolution is decided based on official information from the US federal government, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Announcement deadline: — Deadline for Trump to announce he has resigned or will resign.
Resolution source
Official information from the US federal government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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