Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Current price
99.1¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 99.1%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies directly on official Formula 1 championship standings and rules, giving the decider minimal latitude. Position holders should note the early resolution provision: if the team is mathematically eliminated from winning the Constructors' Championship prior to the final race, the market will immediately resolve to No rather than waiting for the season to finish. Standard tiebreak procedures established by F1 apply if points are tied, and the market will resolve to Other if the season is canceled or not completed by March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mercedes will win the 2026 Formula 1 World Constructors' Championship according to official F1 standings and tiebreak rules.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mercedes is determined to be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion, including through official F1 tiebreak procedures in the event of a tie. The market resolves to No if Mercedes does not win the title or if it becomes mathematically impossible for Mercedes to win based on F1 rules. The market resolves to Other if the 2026 F1 season is permanently canceled or has not completed by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution occurs as soon as official results of the final scheduled race of the season are known, determined by information from F1.
Key dates
- Season completion deadline: — The market resolves to Other if the 2026 season is not completed by this time.
Resolution source
F1
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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