China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Current price
2.8¢
−0.8¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.8%
$3.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or international body, requiring subjective evaluation of news coverage. A critical technical exception involves coast guard forces: the rules classify China's Coast Guard as military but explicitly exclude Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration. Because resolution strictly requires an encounter between the military forces of both sides, violent maritime confrontations involving only Taiwan's Coast Guard and Chinese forces would not qualify for a positive resolution despite appearing to be a clash between the two governments. Additionally, distinguishing between warning shots, minor ship ramming scrapes, and qualifying significant damage introduces interpretive boundary judgments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a direct military clash occurs between the armed forces of China and Taiwan between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. A notable qualification is that the China Coast Guard is classified as military for this market, whereas Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration is not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a direct military encounter involving the use of force—such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanges of gunfire, or intentional ship ramming causing significant damage or sinking—between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. China's Coast Guard counts as military, but Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration does not. Non-violent actions, warning shots, fire into uninhabited zones, missile overflights or splashdowns, and minor ramming damage do not count toward Yes. The market resolves to No if no qualifying encounter occurs within the period. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Start of tracking window: — Beginning of the period during which an encounter qualifies.
- End of tracking window: — Market cutoff time at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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