Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?
Current price
1.8¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.8%
$102.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific, authoritative source (official CME Group settlement prices) and clearly defines how the active contract month is selected. However, someone reading only the title might expect any intraday price spike to count because of the word 'HIGH', but the rules explicitly state that intraday trades, highs, lows, and midpoint prices do not count—only the official daily settlement price can trigger a Yes resolution. Additionally, while the question mentions only 'end of December', the rules specify the expiration year as December 2026. Resolution is based strictly on the first published settlement figures on the CME website, ignoring subsequent corrections.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gold (GC) front-month futures reach an official CME settlement price of $10,000 or higher by the end of December 2026. Resolution relies strictly on the first-published official daily settlement price, excluding intraday highs or later corrections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above $10,000 on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026. Only the first-published official settlement price counts; intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, indicative prices, or later corrections are disregarded. The market resolves to No if the settlement price does not reach or exceed $10,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. CME Group is the deciding source. If the settlement price is not published on the CME website within 72 hours of the final trading day, settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point will be used.
Key dates
- Market Expiration: — Final trading day of December 2026
Resolution source
CME Group website
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