Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Current price
37.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.5%
$385.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election, including any potential runoffs. Party affiliation rules are explicitly defined, noting that only the official nominee represents the party and independent candidates do not qualify regardless of affiliation. The resolution criteria rely on well-defined media sources—requiring unanimous calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with a clear fallback to official election certification if unanimous consensus is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas, including any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from representing the Democratic party regardless of any affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic or Republican options even if affiliated with those parties. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution relies on official state certification.
Key dates
- Midterm election year: The election takes place during the 2026 midterm cycle, inclusive of any run-offs. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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